The global inventory of Waste-to-Energy (WtE) plants continued its upward trajectory through 2025, reaching a combined capacity of over 640 million tonnes per year. However, a significant realignment is underway: while China faces a domestic market downturn and capacity saturation, new project activity is surging across Southeast and Central Asia. In Europe, the focus has shifted toward the modernization of aging Western infrastructure and the necessary expansion of capacity in Southern and Eastern regions to meet EU landfill mandates.
According to the latest market study by consulting firm ecoprog, more than 3,100 thermal waste treatment plants were in operation worldwide by the end of 2025. This represents a net capacity increase of approximately 16 million tonnes compared to the previous year, driven by the commissioning of 18 million tonnes of new capacity offset by the decommissioning of 2 million tonnes of obsolete lines.
China: From Record Expansion to Market Satiety
While China once again saw the largest individual increase in 2025—adding more than 12 million tonnes of capacity—the numbers reveal a cooling market. In its record-breaking year of 2021, China commissioned 190 plants with a capacity of 64 million tonnes. Today, the landscape is vastly different.
The study highlights a “double challenge” for Chinese industry leaders, who often serve as both constructors and operators:
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Saturation: Major cities along the densely populated eastern seaboard now possess sufficient, or even oversized, WtE capacities.
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Waste Scarcity: Economic difficulties combined with the expansion of recycling programs mean that operators are now struggling to secure enough waste volume to keep plants running efficiently.
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Project Deficit: As constructors, these companies are facing a sharp decline in new domestic tenders.
The New Asian Momentum
Outside of the Chinese “special case,” the Asian market is gaining significant momentum. Countries such as Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines are seeing a rise in project activity, while Central Asian nations like Uzbekistan are emerging as new frontiers.
This development is fueled by two main factors:
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Institutional Maturity: Years of planning and institution-building in countries like Indonesia are finally bearing fruit in the form of concrete projects.
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Chinese Diversification: Chinese developers, facing a stagnant home market, are aggressively expanding into these neighboring regions to secure new sales markets.
Europe: Modernization vs. New-Build Necessity
The European market grew by a modest 300,000 tonnes net in 2025. While 1.2 million tonnes of new capacity came online, nearly 900,000 tonnes were decommissioned, signaling that the replacement of existing plants has become the primary business driver in Western Europe.
However, ecoprog expects a resurgence of new-build activity in the coming years:
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Southern and Eastern Europe: Significant capacity is still required in these regions to implement EU legislation and drastically reduce the share of waste sent to landfills.
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The Modernization Wave: While France is already well into its modernization phase, Germany is only just beginning. Between 2 and 4 million tonnes of new or modernized combustion lines are expected to be commissioned in the near future.
The study concludes that as global waste management challenges worsen, the WtE sector remains a critical pillar of environmental and energy technology, provided that plants can adapt to the changing volumes and compositions of the waste stream.
Official Source and Reference:
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Market Study: ecoprog – Waste to Energy 2025/2026