Europe’s growing mountains of waste could become the most important sources of critical raw materials needed for the green and digital transition in the future. The most comprehensive survey to date of the continent’s so-called “urban mines” has been completed within the framework of the European Union-funded FutuRaM project. The results presented in Brussels highlight that with appropriate circular economy measures, secondary raw materials from discarded electronics, batteries, and construction rubble could replace up to 56% of the strategic raw material demand by 2050.
The “European Urban Mine” and the Objectives of the FutuRaM Project
Funded under the Horizon Europe program—and supported by the United Kingdom and Switzerland—the FutuRaM (Future Availability of Secondary Raw Materials) project represents the collaborative work of a 28-partner consortium from 11 European countries, conducted between 2022 and 2026. The main objective of the research is to assess and secure the future availability of Secondary Raw Materials (SRM). With unprecedented detail, the project mapped 42 different Critical Raw Materials (CRM) found in urban waste streams and in-use products across 31 countries (the 27 EU member states, plus the UK, Switzerland, Iceland, and Norway).
The Current Situation: Quantified Data from 2022
The quantitative data from the project highlights the shortcomings of current systems. According to the report, products placed on the European market in 2022 contained approximately 5.2 million tonnes of critical raw materials. In contrast, only 2.1 million tonnes of critical raw materials appeared in existing waste streams, and of this amount, ultimately only 1.4 million tonnes were successfully recovered. In terms of substitution potential for primary materials, this figure currently represents a maximum global share of 27% in end-use applications.
Forecast for 2050: Massive Growth in the Secondary Raw Materials Market
Due to digitalization, the deployment of renewable energy sources, and the acceleration of electrification, the amount of waste containing critical raw materials will increase drastically in the future. The report forecasts that by 2050, the mass of CRM-containing waste generated annually could reach 5.2–6.4 million tonnes.
Through the combined application of advanced recovery systems and purposeful circular economy policies, Europe could recover 4.1–5.7 million tonnes of critical raw materials annually by the middle of the century. With this, the substitution rate of materials from secondary sources could stabilize above 50%, optimally reaching up to 56%. Furthermore, 10 more critical raw materials than at present (up to a total of 24 different materials) would become economically recoverable from domestic waste.
The Seven Key Waste Streams
The experts of the FutuRaM project have identified seven key waste streams for the recovery of critical raw materials:
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End-of-life batteries (BAT)
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Construction and demolition waste (CDW)
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End-of-life vehicles (ELV)
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Mining waste (MIN)
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Slags and ashes (SLASH)
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Waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE)
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Decommissioned wind turbines
These areas conceal the metals and minerals that are essential for future technologies.
Industry’s Critical Dependence on Raw Materials
The project highlighted how vulnerable modern technologies are to the import of these materials. Globally, 60% of gallium demand comes from optoelectronics and integrated circuits, while 56% of indium demand is driven by flat-panel displays. Additionally, 36% of tantalum is used in capacitors. For modern energy storage, 46% of cobalt, 32% of lithium, and 8% of nickel are also directly linked to these sectors. The European recovery of these materials is of strategic importance in the global economic competition.
Methodological Innovations and the Secondary Raw Materials Knowledge Base
To establish an accurate vision for the future, the project created a new recovery model that makes a sharp distinction between materials “hidden” in waste and those actually “recoverable” after treatment processes. The results have been compiled into a comprehensive Secondary Raw Materials Knowledge Base (SRM-KB), and the data has been aligned with the UN Framework Classification for Resources (UNFC), thereby making it easier for decision-makers and industry players to plan future investments.
Significant Climate Protection Impacts
Securing critical raw materials from secondary sources could be a breakthrough not only from a geopolitical perspective but also for climate protection. Based on the report’s estimates, raw material recovery from waste could prevent the emission of 81–273 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent greenhouse gases annually by 2050. This gigantic CO2 saving is roughly equivalent to the current total annual emissions of a state like Spain.
Official Sources and Reference Links:
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Official European Commission factsheet on the FutuRaM project (CORDIS – official EU portal): https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/101058522
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Official project portal: https://futuram.eu/