Berlin – By drastically reducing raw material dependency, building more resilient supply chains, and making a measurable contribution to climate protection, the circular economy can become the most important strategic growth engine for the German industrial sector. A joint analysis published on May 5, 2026, by the Federation of German Industries (BDI) and the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) reveals that utilizing industrial secondary raw materials is not just an ecological interest, but a massive, clearly quantifiable competitive advantage in the global market.
Doubling Value Creation in Key Sectors
Commissioned by the BDI, the Boston Consulting Group examined the effects of the circular economy across five critical industries: mobility, machinery, construction, energy, and textiles. Combined, these sectors account for more than 60 percent of the industrial value added in Germany.
According to the data from the study titled “Growth, Competitiveness, and Resilience: Opportunities of the Circular Economy for German Industry”, the circular gross value added could more than double from its current €60 billion to up to €125 billion by 2045—and this can be achieved within existing industrial and value chain structures. Cumulatively, this additional value creation could amount to up to €880 billion by 2045.
Import Dependency as the Achilles Heel of German Industry
The German industrial sector is currently highly vulnerable regarding the import of key materials essential for future technologies. For critical raw materials such as lithium, nickel, and rare earths, the import quota is nearly 100 percent. This exposure means that geopolitical tensions, export restrictions, and price spikes immediately and directly impact supply chains and national competitiveness.
Market figures show alarming trends in the intensifying global competition for limited resources:
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The prices of copper and aluminum have increased by approximately 60 percent over the past five years.
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The price of lithium per tonne has exhibited extreme volatility, fluctuating between €10,000 and more than €50,000.
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Silver reached a new all-time high in early 2026, driven by explosive demand from electromobility and renewable energies, while global extraction capacities struggled to keep pace.
Holger Lösch, Deputy Director General of the BDI, stated the situation clearly: “By 2040, the demand for critical minerals will exceed primary supply. The high import dependency for key raw materials is already the Achilles heel of Germany as an industrial location. The circular economy can help reduce this vulnerability.”
Quantitative Environmental and Strategic Benefits
According to the analysis, domestic recycling and the reuse of components could replace between 20 and 40 percent of strategic raw material imports by 2045. This would represent a targeted reduction in import dependency: up to 20 percent for rare earths and up to 10 percent for battery materials.
Beyond the strategic advantages, the climate impact is also highly significant. Transitioning to a circular model could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by an additional 11 million tonnes. Furthermore, the reuse and refurbishment of components for wind turbines, transformers, and batteries not only mitigates raw material demand but also reduces the cumulative costs of the energy transition (Energiewende) by nearly €40 billion by 2045.
New Technological Markets and Investment Needs
Germany is well-positioned to turn an ambitious circular economy into a global locational advantage. By 2045, up to 83 million tonnes of recyclates could be made available annually within the country.
This transition also opens up gigantic new markets. The global market volume for sorting and recycling plants, along with their managing software, exceeds €150 billion. The German mechanical engineering sector, as a technology leader, can play a key role in this expanding market. However, to achieve this massive domestic expansion, analysts note that targeted, one-time investments of around €20 billion are required by 2045.
New Business Models Replacing Linear Production
BCG experts highlight that a paradigm shift is also expected at the corporate level. Refurbishment and remanufacturing models can yield higher profit margins than classic, linear new production, while also opening up new customer segments.
“The circular economy is not purely a sustainability issue, but in many areas a viable business model for the future,” stated Patrick Herhold, Co-lead of the Climate and Sustainability practice at BCG and Senior Partner. Alexander Meyer zum Felde, BCG Partner and Global Lead for Circular Economy and Recycling, added: those who control material flows, recover raw materials, and scale circular business models will create structural cost advantages and open up new growth areas.
The key to success now lies in the speed of political and industrial action. According to the BDI, it is essential to accelerate investments in circular infrastructure, shorten permitting procedures, and develop new norms and standards that allow secondary raw materials to be integrated into industrial applications much faster.
Verified Source:
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Original Joint Press Release (BDI & BCG): Kreislaufwirtschaft: 880 Milliarden Euro Wertschöpfungspotenzial für die deutsche Industrie
