Plastic pollution is a defining environmental issue of the 21st century, yet global estimates of how much plastic escapes into nature remain uncertain. A new comprehensive study, using Switzerland as a case study, reveals that plastic emissions in countries with advanced waste management may be much lower than previously thought. By tracking the full product life cycle across 245 emission pathways, the new model provides a highly accurate picture of which materials and processes drive environmental pollution.
A New Probabilistic Model to Track Plastic Flows
Older models often relied on fixed, outdated assumptions about littering and recycling, occasionally overlooking crucial emission pathways. To overcome this, researchers developed a Probabilistic Material Flow Analysis (PMFA) model. This framework is designed to quantify material flows and stocks within a defined space and time. It accounts for the emissions of seven major polymers across all life-cycle stages: polyethylene terephthalate (PET), polypropylene (PP), low-density polyethylene (LDPE), high-density polyethylene (HDPE), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), polystyrene (PS), and expanded polystyrene (EPS).
Unlike previous iterations, this model integrates recent data on production, recycling, and emission pathways. It incorporates industry expert input and recent regulations, such as bans on single-use plastics. By utilizing Monte Carlo simulations, it tracks plastic from production and trade to product use, collection, and end-of-life processes. This approach generates probability distributions rather than single-point estimates, categorizing emissions into direct sources (e.g., textile fiber shedding, manufacturing pellet loss) and indirect sources (e.g., littering, stormwater runoff). Furthermore, it carefully distinguishes between residential, agricultural, and roadside environments.
The Swiss Case Study and Key Findings
The study utilized detailed data from Switzerland in 2022. As a country with a highly advanced waste management system and high environmental awareness, it serves as an excellent benchmark for EU best practices.
According to the estimates, 222 (± 50) grams of plastic were released into the environment per person in Switzerland in 2022. This figure is significantly lower—and potentially much more accurate—than previous estimates for industrialized nations with effective waste management infrastructures.
Key quantitative findings include:
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Macroplastics (82%) dominated the total emissions. These originated mainly from post-consumer processes, packaging litter (such as bottles and films), construction materials, and automotive products.
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Microplastics (18%) stemmed primarily from clothing and textiles (including agrotextiles, geotextiles, and fabric coatings), as well as pre- and post-consumer processes.
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Soils received the vast majority (over 95%) of the emissions, with only a small fraction (less than 5%) reaching surface waters.
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PET and PP were the largest contributors among the polymers, heavily driven by packaging waste and synthetic textiles.
Future Challenges and Policy Implications
The findings challenge narratives about the uniformity of plastic pollution across different regions. The study highlights that clothing—specifically through washing, drying, and wearing—is the absolute largest contributor to microplastics in both soil and water. For macroplastics, packaging litter remains the most significant source.
While researchers suggest that older global assessments likely overstate emissions due to less accurate data, they also note certain limitations in their current model. Notably, the model does not account for tire wear, which is known to be a significant source of microplastics. Additionally, due to the specific Swiss context, certain emission sources are entirely absent from the data (e.g., land application of sewage sludge, fishing gear, beach littering, and traditional landfills). Follow-up research is already underway to extend this model to all European countries.
Ultimately, the data demonstrates that strong waste management infrastructure, high incineration rates, and bans on the land application of sewage sludge substantially reduce environmental leakage. To further cut emissions, countries with robust systems must target the largest remaining sources highlighted by the model: textiles, packaging, manufacturing pellet loss, and agricultural plastics.
References and Sources:
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Official European Commission portal: Some plastic emissions may be lower than previously thought in countries with effective waste management
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Original Research Article: Jiang, D. and Nowack, B. (2025) Reconciling plastic release: Comprehensive modelling of macro- and microplastic flows to the environment. Environmental Pollution (383): 126800. DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2025.126800