Battery recycling market: $39 billion by 2030 – but who is making money?

The battery recycling market will exceed $39 billion by 2030, growing at around 12 per cent a year, according to a forecast published by The Business Research Company (TBRC) on 27 October 2026. Behind the headline, however, lies a surprising picture: most of the growth will come not from electric vehicle lithium-ion batteries but from familiar lead-acid batteries. In this analysis we look at what the data actually show, how far the forecasts can be trusted, and what it all means for European and Hungarian waste management.

In short: TBRC expects the battery recycling market to pass $39 billion by 2030, with lead-acid batteries still accounting for 60 per cent of it. The lithium-ion segment will add only about $5 billion by 2030; the real volume wave arrives afterwards. Revenue growth does not automatically mean profit, either: recycling lithium-ion batteries in Europe is still loss-making today.

How big is the battery recycling market really?

According to TBRC’s latest global market report, the sector will be worth more than $39 billion by 2030. That is roughly 19 per cent of the overall batteries market – expected to reach nearly $204 billion by the same date – and barely 0.7 per cent of the electrical and electronics industry, forecast at around $5,579 billion. The press release puts the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2030 at 12 per cent in the body text and 12.3 per cent in the headline. The small gap is probably rounding, but it is a useful reminder to treat market forecast figures with caution.

The report says the various battery types will together add more than $17 billion in value by 2030. Working backwards, that implies a 2025 base of roughly $22 billion (our own estimate from the published figures). A 12 per cent annual growth rate is consistent with this: it means about 1.76-fold expansion over five years.

For context, we previously covered another firm’s lithium-ion battery recycling market forecast, which expects a $31.95 billion market by 2035, growing at 21.5 per cent a year. The two figures do not contradict each other: one measures all battery recycling, the other only the lithium-ion segment, over a different time horizon.

Three forces driving growth

TBRC identifies three main growth factors and assigns each a numerical contribution:

• Electric vehicles and energy storage (about 2.9 percentage points a year): as EVs and renewable energy storage systems spread, more lithium-ion batteries reach end of life. Governments and manufacturers are investing in recycling capacity to recover lithium, cobalt, nickel and graphite, reducing dependence on primary mining.
• Tighter environmental rules and extended producer responsibility (about 2.7 percentage points a year): EPR schemes make producers finance or organise collection and recycling, which lifts collection rates for automotive, industrial and consumer batteries. In the United States, federal action is now catching up: three new bills passed by the House aim to remove a regulatory trap that complicates the storage of lithium-ion batteries at recycling sites.
• Recovery of critical raw materials (about 2.2 percentage points a year): worried about supply disruptions and price volatility, manufacturers want to build more recycled lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese and lead into their products.

Together the three factors explain roughly 7.8 percentage points of the 12 per cent growth; the report links the remainder to technological progress, expanding collection networks and automation. As a technology example, TBRC cites a lithium-ion recycling plant in eastern India, opened in October 2025, capable of processing 1,000 tonnes a month. Laboratory work points the same way, such as the chemical bath process that restores up to 95 per cent of EV battery capacity, which we reported on earlier.

Lead is still king

The report’s most important – yet least emphasised – message: in 2030, lead-acid batteries will account for 60 per cent of the recycling market, around $23 billion. Of the $17 billion increase, $10 billion comes from lead-acid, while lithium-based batteries add just $5 billion and nickel-based and other types $1 billion each.

The reason is simple. Lead-acid starter batteries sit in practically every vehicle – EVs included, as low-voltage auxiliary batteries – they need regular replacement, and their collection has worked well for decades. Lead recovery is cheap, the recovered material is valuable and the closed loop is economically sustainable. A good example is Clarios’s acquisition of three Ecobat facilities in Europe, which brought closed-loop recycling of polypropylene battery casings in-house alongside lead.

The relatively modest growth expected in lithium-ion recycling before 2030 does not mean the segment is unimportant – rather, that the large volumes have not yet arrived. Batteries from EVs sold between 2019 and 2022 will only begin reaching end of life in the coming years, and data from the analyst firm Circular Energy Storage indicate that the volume of batteries available for recycling accelerates sharply after 2030.

Asia and the United States lead the market

Regionally, Asia-Pacific remains the largest market: TBRC expects it to grow from $8 billion in 2025 to $15 billion by 2030, at 13 per cent a year. China, Japan, South Korea and India are building on rapid growth in battery manufacturing, circular economy policy and investment in advanced methods such as hydrometallurgy and direct recycling.

Among individual countries, the United States is the largest market, rising from $4 billion in 2025 to $7 billion by 2030 – a 14 per cent annual rate, faster than the global average. Growth is driven by EV production, the spread of energy storage, expanding domestic recycling capacity and close cooperation between automakers and recyclers.

Notably, the press release gives no separate figure for Europe. That is striking because the European Union is far ahead in regulatory terms while lagging well behind Asia in industrial capacity and cost efficiency – a gap examined in detail in our article on the future and challenges of European battery recycling.

Fragmented competition, thin margins

The market is moderately fragmented: in 2025 the ten largest players together accounted for only 17 per cent of revenue. Market leader Umicore of Belgium held a 5 per cent share, offering full-service collection, metal recovery and refining for EV, consumer electronics and industrial batteries. Among other major players, TBRC lists Glencore, Fortum, Exide, Ecobat, EnerSys, Cirba Solutions, Stena Recycling and CATL’s subsidiary Guangdong Brunp.

Entry barriers are described as moderate but real: strict environmental regulation, hazardous waste obligations and advanced metal recovery technology. Competitive advantage comes from diversified processing capability, established collection systems and continuous innovation – increasingly including AI-based sorting and material traceability.

This is the point to pause, because revenue growth in the market is not the same as profitability. Calculations by researchers at HHL Leipzig in 2026 show that hydrometallurgical processing of a typical lithium-ion pack currently loses about €1.90 per kilogram, mainly because of dangerous-goods transport surcharges, manual disassembly and uncertainty about the input material. As our analysis of the battery circular economy showed, pure-play recyclers are loss-making, and two well-known North American players entered insolvency proceedings in 2025. The companies that stay afloat are typically diversified across several steps of the value chain.

What does this mean for Europe and Hungary?

The EU Batteries Regulation (EU 2023/1542) sets mandatory minimum recycled content for new industrial, EV and SLI batteries from August 2031: 16 per cent cobalt, 6 per cent lithium, 6 per cent nickel and 85 per cent lead. This creates structurally guaranteed demand for recovered metals, so European market growth will depend less on commodity price swings than elsewhere. How that recycled share will be calculated and verified is a challenge in itself, as a recent JRC study on recycled content in batteries explains.

From a Hungarian perspective, two factors stand out. First, Hungary has become one of the significant hubs of European battery cell manufacturing, so production scrap – likely to be the most important short-term feedstock for lithium-ion recyclers in the coming years – is generated locally. Second is collection: lithium batteries ending up in household waste are causing more and more fires at waste facilities, which is why Austrian waste companies have proposed a cashback system for every returned lithium-ion battery. Efficient, safe collection is therefore not only an environmental issue but one of operational safety – and, given the figures above, of economics.

On the legal side, it also helps that the EU’s amended waste list introduced separate waste codes for lithium-based batteries and for the intermediate fraction from their recycling, known as black mass. This clarifies how each step of the processing chain is classified and makes uncontrolled export of this valuable secondary raw material harder.

How should market forecasts be read?

The battery recycling market is one of those areas where estimates by market research firms vary enormously. BCC Research expects a $19.8 billion market by 2030 with 9.2 per cent annual growth, an earlier MarketsandMarkets report $54.3 billion, and TBRC now $39 billion. The differences are mainly methodological: whether collection and logistics are included, whether the value of recovered materials or only processing service revenue is counted, and whether reuse and second-life applications are part of the scope.

It is also worth remembering that such forecasts typically appear as paid press releases designed to sell the full – paid – report. The direction of the trend, however, is consistent across all sources: double-digit or near-double-digit annual growth, short-term dominance of lead-acid batteries and rapid catch-up by the lithium-ion segment.

Outlook: the big volume wave arrives after 2030

Overall, the TBRC report describes a market still built largely on a mature, well-functioning lead recycling industry, while future value lies with lithium-ion batteries. The key question for the next five years is not whether there will be enough batteries to process – there will be – but whether lithium-ion recycling can be made profitable: through cheaper logistics, batteries designed for disassembly, automation and consistent data.

For Europe, its regulatory lead can become an industrial advantage if adequate processing capacity is built before the 2031 recycled-content requirements take effect. Otherwise, black mass will keep flowing to Asia – and with it, the benefits of the market’s growth.

---

Frequently asked questions about the battery recycling market

How big will the battery recycling market be by 2030?

According to The Business Research Company, the global battery recycling market will exceed $39 billion by 2030. Average annual growth is around 12 per cent, and the published figures imply a 2025 base of roughly $22 billion. Estimates by other research firms range from $19.8 billion to $54.3 billion, mainly because of methodological differences in what is counted.

Which battery type accounts for the largest share of recycling revenue?

Lead-acid batteries: in 2030 they will make up 60 per cent of the market, around $23 billion. They are found in almost every vehicle, need regular replacement and have had a well-functioning collection system for decades. Lithium-based batteries will add only about $5 billion in value by 2030, because the large volumes arrive later.

What is driving growth in battery recycling?

Three main factors: the spread of electric vehicles and energy storage, tighter environmental rules and extended producer responsibility, and demand for recovered critical raw materials. TBRC estimates these contribute roughly 2.9, 2.7 and 2.2 percentage points a year respectively to market growth. The remainder comes from technological progress, wider collection networks and automation.

Which region is the largest market for battery recycling?

Asia-Pacific, which is expected to grow from $8 billion in 2025 to $15 billion by 2030, at 13 per cent a year. Among individual countries the United States is the largest market, rising from $4 billion to $7 billion at 14 per cent a year. The report gives no separate figure for Europe, despite the EU leading on regulation.

Why is lithium-ion battery recycling loss-making today?

Because the market value of recovered materials does not cover process costs. HHL Leipzig calculates that processing a typical lithium-ion pack loses about €1.90 per kilogram. The largest cost items are dangerous-goods transport surcharges, manual disassembly and uncertainty about the input material. Diversified companies covering several value-chain steps prove more stable than pure-play recyclers.

What recycled content will the EU require in batteries from 2031?

From August 2031, the EU Batteries Regulation (EU 2023/1542) sets mandatory minimum recycled content for new industrial, EV and SLI batteries: 16 per cent cobalt, 6 per cent lithium, 6 per cent nickel and 85 per cent lead. This creates structurally guaranteed demand for recovered metals, making the European market less dependent on commodity price swings.

---

🔗 Official sources and references: 👉

1. Original market report: EIN News / The Business Research Company – Battery Recycling Market Growth Rate Expected To Reach 12.3% CAGR By 2030 (27 October 2026)
2. Comparative forecast: BCC Research – Battery Recycling Market to Reach $19.8 Billion Globally by 2030
3. Comparative forecast: MarketsandMarkets – Battery Recycling Market worth $54.3 billion by 2030
4. Volume forecast: Circular Energy Storage – Global battery recycling volumes to rise sharply after 2030
5. Legislation: Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 of the European Parliament and of the Council concerning batteries and waste batteries

Consistent structure, quick answers: every article is built so that both readers and AI search tools can find the key points easily. Our content is produced with the help of AI tools and reviewed by our editor.