U.S. Trade in Recyclable Plastics Materials Slowed in the First Quarter of 2026

In the first quarter of 2026, the United States’ trade in recyclable plastics materials experienced a significant slowdown in both exports and imports. While the USMCA region (Canada and Mexico) remained the primary trading partner, trade flows with China, formerly a dominant market, underwent a drastic restructuring. The latest data indicates that these declining foreign trade figures may reflect a strengthening of domestic plastics recycling capacity within the U.S.

Quantitative and Value Trends in Exports and Imports

According to economic reports, U.S. exports of recyclable plastics materials—including polymers of ethylene, polymers of styrene, polymers of vinyl chloride, polyethylene terephthalate (PET), and other plastics—totaled $41.0 million in the first quarter of 2026. This value represents a 10.4% decrease compared to the previous quarter and a 24.6% decline year-over-year (YoY).

In terms of volume, export quantities reached 90.5 million kilograms during the analyzed period, down 7.7% from the prior quarter and 6.5% year-over-year. Notably, the vast majority of export volume, precisely 71.5%, consisted of non-PET and non-polyethylene (PE) plastics.

On the other hand, the value of imports rose by 7.8% quarter-over-quarter to $26.9 million, but this still marks a massive 60.6% drop compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Import volumes totaled 59.4 million kilograms in the first quarter, reflecting a modest 3.5% increase from the previous quarter but a 39.2% decline YoY. Similar to exports, more than half of the imports (67%) consisted of plastics other than PET and PE.

Main Trading Partners and the Dominance of USMCA

The United States’ primary trading partners for recyclable plastics materials are its USMCA partners: Canada and Mexico.

In the first quarter, 37.1% of U.S. exports went to Canada, and 17.3% were directed to Mexico, together accounting for more than half (54.4%) of total U.S. exports. Combined with eight other countries—India, Malaysia, Vietnam, Turkey, Spain, Germany, Pakistan, and El Salvador—these ten markets comprised 84.0% of total U.S. exports for recyclable plastics materials.

The dominance of USMCA partners is even more pronounced regarding imports: 61.4% originated from Canada and 22.2% from Mexico, combining for 83.6% of total imports. While the U.S. has largely halted exports of recyclable plastics materials to China, imports from China continue; in the first quarter, they totaled 1.3 million kilograms, equivalent to 2.2% of total U.S. imports. Along with USMCA partners and China, imports from Denmark, Vietnam, Germany, Czechia, the U.K., Italy, and Bangladesh brought the combined share of these countries to 97.6% of total U.S. imports.

Domestic Recycling Gains and the Reshaping of Trade with China

Long-term analysis of macroeconomic data shows that U.S. exports of recyclable plastics materials decreased significantly, falling at a 15.0% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2016 and 2025. One can argue that the increased utilization of recycled materials in the U.S. necessitates greater domestic recycling activity, leaving less material for foreign markets. Meanwhile, U.S. exports of recyclable plastics materials to its USMCA partners grew modestly at a 0.7% CAGR over the same period, while imports from USMCA partners decreased by 2.3%.

Outside its USMCA trade partners, China—which had long been both a major export destination and import source—has become a far less active trading partner for the U.S. in recyclable plastics materials. Following China’s National Sword policy, which took effect on January 1, 2018, and banned the import of 24 categories of solid waste while implementing a strict 0.5% contamination standard, U.S. exports to China plummeted at a 53.2% CAGR between 2016 and 2025. U.S. imports from China also declined, falling at a 7.4% CAGR over the same period.

Due to these regulatory shifts, the U.S. recorded a 4.6 million-kilogram trade deficit with China in recyclable plastics materials in 2025. Although the U.S. maintained a long-standing trade surplus with China until 2021, changes in China’s import rules reversed the trade balance in China’s favor, even though actual trade volumes between the two countries have remained relatively low.

Taken together, these trends suggest that the U.S. continues to strengthen its domestic plastics recycling capacity. While market dynamics will continue to shape recycling activity in support of broader sustainability goals, public policy and regulatory frameworks remain essential to ensuring efficient and well-functioning recycling markets.

References and Related Sources:

• Original Article and Source Data: Plastics Industry Association – U.S. Trade in Recyclable Plastics Materials Slowed in the First Quarter

• Official Government Database (the basis of industry statistics): U.S. Census Bureau – Foreign Trade Data